That Explains It

The other day Listner Jim told me about an interesting study by Scientists and Experts. It seems that you can take someone who is pretty set in their beliefs about something, and show them actual, factual evidence that their beliefs are wrong—and not only will it not matter that they’re wrong, but the factual evidence to the contrary will make their adherence to their incorrect beliefs even stronger. I don’t know exactly which study Listner Jim had in mind, but you can find lots of them if you Google “belief perseverance” or “confirmation bias.” Those Scientists and Experts are a busy bunch.

This helps explain the Troy Davis case, I guess. Troy Davis was arrested in 1989 and charged with shooting off-duty police officer Mark MacPhail during a scuffle in a Burger King parking lot. He was convicted in 1991, based solely on the testimony of witnesses. There was absolutely no physical evidence connecting MacPhail to the crime. (The gun was never found.) Seven of the nine witnesses who testified against Davis have recanted their testimony, and most say they were coerced by police into signing statements—some say they did not even read the statements they signed. (One was even illiterate.) They just wanted the police to let them go and leave them alone. One of the two “witnesses” who has not recanted his testimony is an alternate suspect against whom new evidence does exist. A couple of the original prosecution witnesses now say that this man is the one who killed Officer MacPhail. But in spite of all the facts that point to Troy Davis being innocent, the Supreme Court of Georgia has denied him a new trial, and the Georgia State Board of Pardon and Paroles has refused to commute Troy Davis’ death sentence, and unless the Supreme Court of the United States does something before 7:00 PM tonight (less than two hours from the time I am writing this), the state of Georgia will execute Troy Davis, who says he never killed anybody. The facts also say he probably didn’t, but the facts just seem to make the Georgia authorities more determined to put Troy Davis to death.

I see the same phenomenon every time I mention how John McCain “wet started” the fire on the USS Forrestal, or whenever I say “Keating 5” or “Savings and Loan bail-out” or “disfigured first wife.” My little Republican friends’ eyes glaze over, and they just get more determined to vote for this guy. Or maybe it's Sarah Palin they're voting for. I got about a dozen forwarded emails this morning concerning some PBS poll where people are being asked whether Palin is qualified to be Vice President. The YES vote was winning, and these folks were all agitated and wanted everyone to go vote NO. But I think they’re missing the point: It’s a poll, and most people are voting YES, and that means that most people—or most of the people responding to the poll, anyway—think she is qualified. You fancy liberals better come up with something better than clicking your mouse NO and thinking you’ve accomplished something. Because any facts you can produce to show that Sarah Palin is way out of her league are only going to make those YES folks more convinced that she’s great VP material. And what are you gonna do about that?

Comments

[zom]

more reason i'm embarrassed to live in georgia.

-good news though- this just in- he has been given a stay of execution.
i hope the truth comes out, either way.

and thanks for the blog, i hadn't heard all the evidence and lack thereof.

[Dr. Correcto]

Hey - I know the "McCain wet-started his jet on the USS Forrestal and cooked off a rocket in the jet behind his" story sounds plausible. However, if you look at the Navy incident reports and deck diagrams (and believe them), McCain's jet was on the opposite side of the ship, with its exhaust pointed out over the deck towards the ocean, with no jet parked behind his. (http://attach.high-g.net/attachments/cva_59_fire_aft_deck_plan_934.png)

The Forrestal fire has been conflated with another fire on board the USS Independence in 1969 in which the exhaust from an aircraft engine starter apparatus DID cook off a Zuni rocket. But again, there was no "wet start". (http://www.ordnance.org/mishaps.htm)

Beyond all this, McCain was an A4E Skyhawk pilot. The A4 did not have an afterburner and so could not perform a wet start. (http://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=165)

None of this changes that fact that McCain sucks. Vote Obama.

[Spaceman One]

Reminds me that my more politically enlightened friends refused to believe the story behind Bill Clinton's execution of Ricky Ray Rector.

[Belgrave Joe, Jr.]

I believe that the study Listner Jim had in mind was this here one: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/14/AR2008091402375.html.

[K]

I guess I'd make the election about the actual presidential candidates rather than the one VP. I'm still chuckling over your poll story... American Idol, look out!

[robin]

i work in the same bldg as the origin of the pbs poll and i thought it was beyond stupid.

pointless.

thanks for the post!

[robin]

but the NOW people can explain the poll themselves:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joel-b-schwartzberg/the-truth-behind-the-now_b_128709.html

[nawyecky]

too bad McCain was born in Panama... not eligible to be president.

[Julio]

That explains why he picked Palin as his running mate--to prevent anyone from daring to challenge the natural-born citizenship issue.